- Month
- Jun 2026 (Soft Open)
- Covers/Day
- 100
- Capacity
- ~55%
- Rationale
- First 2 weeks limited menu, building rhythm. Street closure 3rd week = major boost.
Revenue Assumptions
Basis for projected revenue in the P&L model
Dining Seats
36
Floor plan / fire code
Patio Seats
40
Municipal patio permit
Avg Check (Off)
$105
Oct–May
Avg Check (Patio)
$80 – $110
Jun–Sep
Core Revenue Model
Days Open (Off-Season)5 (Tue–Sat)
Days Open (Patio)6 (Tue–Sun)
Service Hours (Dining)5 PM – 1 AM
Service Hours (Patio)12 PM – 11 PM
Avg Turns (Dining)1.5 – 2.0
Avg Turns (Patio)2.0 – 2.5
Avg Covers/Day (Off)54 – 65
Avg Covers/Day (Patio)80 – 120
Food : Bev Split70 : 30
Revenue Ramp-Up Logic
- Month
- Jul–Aug 2026 (Peak)
- Covers/Day
- 120
- Capacity
- ~65%
- Rationale
- Full menu, patio at capacity, peak tourist season in St. John's.
- Month
- Sep 2026 (Transition)
- Covers/Day
- 80
- Capacity
- ~45%
- Rationale
- Patio winds down, dining room carries. Events season begins.
- Month
- Oct–Dec 2026
- Covers/Day
- 54–60
- Capacity
- ~35%
- Rationale
- Winter steady state. Focus on private events, regulars, holiday bookings.
- Month
- Jan–Mar 2027
- Covers/Day
- 54–60
- Capacity
- ~35%
- Rationale
- Off-season. Lower covers offset by higher average check ($105 vs $80).
- Month
- Apr–May 2027
- Covers/Day
- 65
- Capacity
- ~40%
- Rationale
- Spring pick-up. Patio prep, marketing push for summer.
- Month
- Jun–Aug 2027 (Year 2 Peak)
- Covers/Day
- 120
- Capacity
- ~65%
- Rationale
- Established reputation. Repeat guests, tourism, full patio operation.
| Month | Covers/Day | Capacity | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 (Soft Open) | 100 | ~55% | First 2 weeks limited menu, building rhythm. Street closure 3rd week = major boost. |
| Jul–Aug 2026 (Peak) | 120 | ~65% | Full menu, patio at capacity, peak tourist season in St. John's. |
| Sep 2026 (Transition) | 80 | ~45% | Patio winds down, dining room carries. Events season begins. |
| Oct–Dec 2026 | 54–60 | ~35% | Winter steady state. Focus on private events, regulars, holiday bookings. |
| Jan–Mar 2027 | 54–60 | ~35% | Off-season. Lower covers offset by higher average check ($105 vs $80). |
| Apr–May 2027 | 65 | ~40% | Spring pick-up. Patio prep, marketing push for summer. |
| Jun–Aug 2027 (Year 2 Peak) | 120 | ~65% | Established reputation. Repeat guests, tourism, full patio operation. |
Additional Revenue Drivers (Beyond Covers)
These represent upside NOT yet modeled in the P&L. The projections use only base covers + event revenue.
- Revenue Driver
- Private Events & Buyouts
- Est. Monthly
- $3,500 – $5,000
- Timeline
- Month 1+
- Notes
- Already generating $3.5K–$5K/mo in pre-open pop-ups. Full space buyouts at $5K+ once open.
- Revenue Driver
- Late Night Bar Program
- Est. Monthly
- $2,000 – $4,000
- Timeline
- Month 2+
- Notes
- Bar stays open to 1 AM. Post-dinner cocktail crowd, especially weekends. High-margin bev revenue.
- Revenue Driver
- Weekly Features / Chef's Table
- Est. Monthly
- $1,500 – $2,500
- Timeline
- Month 3+
- Notes
- Tasting menu nights, wine pairings, guest chef events. Drives mid-week traffic + higher check avg.
- Revenue Driver
- Catering & Off-Premise
- Est. Monthly
- $1,000 – $3,000
- Timeline
- Year 2
- Notes
- Corporate lunches, event catering. Leverages kitchen capacity during off-hours.
- Revenue Driver
- Holiday & Seasonal Programming
- Est. Monthly
- $5,000 – $8,000
- Timeline
- Seasonal
- Notes
- NYE, Valentine's, Mother's Day, St. Patrick's Day, Regatta. Prix fixe menus at premium pricing.
- Revenue Driver
- Tourism & Hotel Partnerships
- Est. Monthly
- $1,000 – $2,000
- Timeline
- Year 2
- Notes
- Concierge partnerships with downtown hotels. St. John's is a growing tourism market.
- Revenue Driver
- Water Street Pedestrian Mall
- Est. Monthly
- Built into peak covers
- Timeline
- Jun–Sep
- Notes
- 3rd week of June street closure + summer pedestrian traffic. Location advantage — we're right there.
- Revenue Driver
- Brunch Service (Patio Season)
- Est. Monthly
- $2,000 – $4,000
- Timeline
- Summer Year 2
- Notes
- Sunday patio brunch. Low incremental labour cost, high margin. Evaluate after Year 1 summer.
| Revenue Driver | Est. Monthly | Timeline | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private Events & Buyouts | $3,500 – $5,000 | Month 1+ | Already generating $3.5K–$5K/mo in pre-open pop-ups. Full space buyouts at $5K+ once open. |
| Late Night Bar Program | $2,000 – $4,000 | Month 2+ | Bar stays open to 1 AM. Post-dinner cocktail crowd, especially weekends. High-margin bev revenue. |
| Weekly Features / Chef's Table | $1,500 – $2,500 | Month 3+ | Tasting menu nights, wine pairings, guest chef events. Drives mid-week traffic + higher check avg. |
| Catering & Off-Premise | $1,000 – $3,000 | Year 2 | Corporate lunches, event catering. Leverages kitchen capacity during off-hours. |
| Holiday & Seasonal Programming | $5,000 – $8,000 | Seasonal | NYE, Valentine's, Mother's Day, St. Patrick's Day, Regatta. Prix fixe menus at premium pricing. |
| Tourism & Hotel Partnerships | $1,000 – $2,000 | Year 2 | Concierge partnerships with downtown hotels. St. John's is a growing tourism market. |
| Water Street Pedestrian Mall | Built into peak covers | Jun–Sep | 3rd week of June street closure + summer pedestrian traffic. Location advantage — we're right there. |
| Brunch Service (Patio Season) | $2,000 – $4,000 | Summer Year 2 | Sunday patio brunch. Low incremental labour cost, high margin. Evaluate after Year 1 summer. |
Key Assumptions
- 1.Average check of $105 (off-season) / $80–$110 (patio) is conservative for upscale casual in downtown St. John's.
- 2.Event revenue ($3.5K–$5K/mo) is already proven through pre-opening pop-ups and bookings.
- 3.The P&L model (Tab 3) uses ONLY base covers + event revenue. Additional drivers above represent upside not yet modeled.
- 4.Covers/day assumes 35–65% capacity utilization — below the 70–80% typical of a well-run restaurant at maturity.
- 5.Food cost at 33% and beverage at 22% are at or slightly above industry targets, providing margin safety.
- 6.The Water Street pedestrian mall (DPM) (3rd week of June) is a significant revenue catalyst in the first weeks of operation.